EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Short term outlook in EUR/JPY remains bullish with 129.85 support intact. Current rise from 124.35 is still in favor to extend further towards 137.38 resistance and above. Nevertheless, we're still expecting strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 112.10 at 141.03 and bring reversal. On the downside, below 129.85 support will suggest that rise from 124.35 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 124.35 support will now be an important signal that whole rise from 112.10 has finally completed and will turn short term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there are some interpretations that carries even probability. Whole down trend from 08 high of 169.96 has either bottomed at 113.63 or 112.10 and rise from 112.10 could either be the first leg, the third leg or the whole correction to such medium term decline. But in any case, such rally from 112.10 should terminate between 50% retracement of 169.96 to 112.10 at 141.03 and 61.8% retracement at 147.85 and bring down trend resumption. Based on the time spent on the consolidation so far, below 124.35 will be an early alert that medium term fall is resuming and will turn focus back to 112.10 low for confirmation.