Friday, May 8, 2009

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Short term outlook in EUR/JPY remains bullish with 129.85 support intact. Current rise from 124.35 is still in favor to extend further towards 137.38 resistance and above. Nevertheless, we're still expecting strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 112.10 at 141.03 and bring reversal. On the downside, below 129.85 support will suggest that rise from 124.35 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 124.35 support will now be an important signal that whole rise from 112.10 has finally completed and will turn short term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there are some interpretations that carries even probability. Whole down trend from 08 high of 169.96 has either bottomed at 113.63 or 112.10 and rise from 112.10 could either be the first leg, the third leg or the whole correction to such medium term decline. But in any case, such rally from 112.10 should terminate between 50% retracement of 169.96 to 112.10 at 141.03 and 61.8% retracement at 147.85 and bring down trend resumption. Based on the time spent on the consolidation so far, below 124.35 will be an early alert that medium term fall is resuming and will turn focus back to 112.10 low for confirmation.

Forex: Dollar keeps falling; USD/CHF reaches 5-month low

While markets holds gains dollar can’t stop falling. Swiss Franc is rallying. USD/CHF now is being traded at 1.1088 reaching a 5-month low. If the pair maintains this level it will be the lowest close since January 8th. So far today the pair is down almost 2% with a free fall of more than two hundred pips. Next resistance level could be found at 1.1060.

The Swiss Franc also rose against the euro. EUR/CHF broke support zone at 1.5090 and fall to 1.5060 only 5 pips above May lows. The Swiss has recovered yesterday loses and now is heading to a weekly gain to the euro.

Forex: Dollar plunges; EUR/USD at 1.3630

Dollar is in a free falling across the board. EUR/USD recently went above 1.3600 and kept rising reaching at 1.3630 the highest price since March 23rd. For the day the pair has raised more than two hundred pips representing an increase of 1.76% for the day.

GBP/USD flight above 1.5200 to 1.5215 a new 5-month high. The pound is stronger and gaining 1.20% for the day. Also against the yen the dollar is suffering. USD/JPY rallied downside after the pair broke below 98.75 to 98.30 where the dollar rebounded. Now is at 98.47 down 0.85% for the day.


GBP/USD: Pound drops to 1.5050 after BoE monetary policy decision

BoE monetary policy decision has weighed on the Pound which has dropped to afresh intra-day low at 1.5050 from levels around 1.5065 before the Bank released its decision

On the downside, if the Pound consolidates below 1.5070 previous intra-day low, next support level could come at 1.4980/90 (May 6 low); below there, 1.4945 (Apr 30 high). On the upside, resistance levels remain at 1.5165 (May 5 high) and above there, 1.5200 intra-day high and 1.5370.

GBP/JPY has also dropped on the back of BoE’s monetary policy announcement, and the Pound declined from 150.90 to 149.30 although the Pound seems to be picking up to levels around 150.00. Resistance levels lie at 151.50 and 151.75. Support levels lie at 149.90 and 149.60.

Forex: EUR/GBP rises above 0.8820 after BoE monetary policy decision

The EUR has won around 65 pips against GBP after the BoE released its decision
of hold unchanged its interest rate at 0.50%, decision was in line of expectations. EUR/GBP climbed up from 0.8790 to reach 0.8855, intra-day high. Currently the pair is trading around 0.8820/30, 0.40% above today's opening price.

The Bank of England has decided to leave its official bank rate unchanged at 0.5%at its May monetary policy meeting and to continue with the program of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves and increase its size by GBP50 billion to a total of GBP125 billion.

ECB cuts Refi Rate by 25 bps to 1.0%; Euro jumps to intra-day high

The European Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee has decided to trim its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% after its May monetary policy meeting.

The European Central Bank, as usual did not give any further explanation, so all the eyes are set on the press conference Mr. Trichet will hold later at 12.30 GMT.

EUR/USD has broken intra-day high jumping from levels at 1.3300 to levels above 1.3360, approaching May 5 high at 1.3375, immediately after the Bank published its decision

Forex: EUR/GBP rise above 0.8860 after ECB Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate

EUR/GBP has reacted up after the ECB monetary policy decision, the pair has risen around 40 pips from 0.8825 to 0.8865 after the ECB cut its refi interest rate from 1.25% to 1.00%, the lowest level. Currently the pair is trading around 0.8850/60, 0.80% above today's opening price.

The European Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee has decided to trim its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% after its May monetary policy meeting.

Forex: EUR/USD: Euro reaches intra-day high at 1.3380 after ECB monetary policy decision

The Euro has reached a new intra-day high at 1.3380 after the ECB released its monetary policy decision, from levels around 1.3300 moment before the Bank´s release.

If the Euuro manages to hold above 1.3375 (May 6 high), next resistance level might lie at 1.3435 (May 5 high) and 1.3460/65. On the downside, support levels might be at previous intra-day high 1.3345 and below there, 1.3290/1.3300 and 1.3255/45 (intra-day low/may 6 low).

EUR/JPY has rally from 130.70 has extended after ECB decision to levels right below 132.80/90, May 4 and 5 high. Resistance levels lie at the mentioned 132.80/90, and above there, 134.33. Support levels lie at 132.40 and 132.00.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Dollar mix while U.S. markets rise

U.S. markets are rising today after a good job report. Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1% but Nasdaq remain negative only 0.13%. European markets closed today with gains. Since the opening bell in Wall Street the dollar is mix across the board.

Against the yen is loosing early gains and now USD/JPY is down for the day 0.45%.
To the euro, dollar is stronger but failed twice to break below 1.3270. Now is still fighting at 1.3300 near today opening price at 1.3310.
Cable is testing again the zone of 1.5090. GBP/USD has recovered from early losses at the beginning of the American session.
USD/CHF has risen but mostly moving in sideways without been able to break key levels. The pair current price is 1.1337 which is 0.06% down for the day.

Forex: USD/JPY fails to break above 98.65 falls to 98.25

The dollar is loosing against the yen since the beginning of the American session. After reaching a intra-day high at 99.10 USD/JPY started to moved in a down trend.

Recently the yen got stronger after falling below 98.50 to 98.25 which now is an important support zone. The current price is 98.45 which represents 0.50% lower than the opening price.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Canadian Dollar Strength Could Evaporate Should Labor Data Stumble



Fundamental Outlook for Canadian Dollar: Bearish

- Canadian economy contracts for a seventh month, but trend improving
- Speculative positions for USDCAD grows extreme as traders try to call a bottom
- Do technical forecasts conflict with the Fundamentals? Read the FX Technical Weekly to find out

The Canadian dollar has exhibited tremendous strength this past week, brought on by the Bank of Canada’s hesitation to adopt quantitative easing and a notable cooling in nation’s recession. However, will this advance last? In the currency market, the strength and weakness are relative. So, traders will have to decide whether the loonie is indeed weathering the global economic slowdown and struggle to thaw financial markets better than its counterpart. Clearly, speculation is still offering its vote of confidence behind the single currency; but it is prudent to heed the warnings of policy officials. Dour forecasts from the central bank and government gives rise to doubt; but active market participants remain skeptical. Perhaps a round of the economy’s top even risk due over the next few days will merge the outlooks behind these two divergent camps.

Without question, the top event risk over the coming week is Friday’s labor report. The Bloomberg consensus is calling for a net 50,000 jobs to have been lost over the month of April. This would mark the sixth consecutive decline in national employment and is further expected to push the jobless rate to a more than 10-year high 8.3 percent. Such speculation is well-founded considering the state of the economy and the forecasts from policy makers. Canada is on track to establish its first official recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction) since 1991. Even the Bank of Canada - who is supposed to be the cheerleader for its forecasts can become a sell-fullfilling prophecy to some degree – has projected the worse. After projecting a 3.0 percent contraction in real GDP through 2009 and ongoing deterioration in credit conditions, the future seems to have dimmed. However, there is still room for surprise – especially with the market obviously willing to buy the currency despite its disappointing prospects. Should the decline in net employment be closer to zero (or less likely but infinitely more market-moving, positive), it would fit into the theme that the pace of economic deterioration is slowing. If that is the case with Canada, the country is in a far-better position to mount a quick and aggressive recovery than many of its counterparts.

Ignoring the gravity of the labor data, there are other indicators on and off the Canadian docket that should be accounted for when developing a rounded forecast for the loonie. First and foremost, the US NFPs (also due on Friday and likely curbing much of the volatility that USDCAD would develop after a notable Canadian report) will have a profound impact on its neighbor to the north. Looking beyond the obvious implications of the exchange rate between the two, we also have the export demand factor that is tied to the employment reading. While the US employment rate is hardly the end-all-be-all for economic activity in that country; it is perhaps the best leading indicator for growth. As such, as the jobless rate in America rises, demand for Canadian goods from its consumers, business and investors drops. As the destination for approximately 80 percent of Canada’s exported goods, this impact should not be overlooked.

Back at home, the rest of the docket will fall to interest in business activity and the housing sector. The Ivey PMI is expected to drop back, though not to retest its recent record low set back in January. As for the housing sector, the plunge into recession is still fresh and certainly not as severe as its US counterpart. Forecasts for a 2.3 percent drop in housing starts and a modest improvement in building permits following a 7 year low certainly open the potential for surprise. – JK

Dollar Comparison With other Currencies 05/01/09

Buffett predicts higher inflation, lower dollar

In the 44 years he's been building a reputation as the world's savviest investor, Warren Buffett has rarely offered any good news on gold. Until now.

The two key messages he delivered to 35 000 shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway's AGM in Omaha over the weekend were inflation is coming back; and the US dollar is headed lower. Both predictions, if fulfilled, are powerfully positive for gold.

Buffett, who has delivered compounded returns exceeding 20% a year to shareholders for more than four decades, did not mention gold by name. But that will matter little to the yellow metal's continuously growing group of supporters. They are sure to interpret this as further evidence that gold's best days lie ahead.

Despite his gloomy forecasts for inflation, Buffett hasn't exactly rushed out to by Krugerrands. Rather, he suggested to Berkshire shareholders their best protection was "invest in yourself; and as a second option, buy stock in a well run company".

Buffett explained that in the wake of the global financial sector meltdown, State officials have been forced to take the world into unchartered territory. Nobody knows the exact impact of unprecedented bailout and stimulation packages.

But he is convinced of one definite consequence: "You can bet on inflation." History suggests that higher inflation is an important trigger for a rise in the gold price.

During Saturday's six hour question and answer marathon, Buffett (78) and Berkshire Hathaway's Vice Chairman Charlie Munger (85) once again belied their advanced years through sharp wit and focused minds. They also referred often to their view the US dollar is headed south - another bull factor for gold.

Buffett believes US government bonds are one of the poorest choices for investors today, especially non-Americans. As he put it: "Anybody who holds (US) Dollar obligations from outside this country is going to get back less in purchasing power in future."

In his view the US is following policies that are bound to have inflationary consequences. Heading these is the heavy borrowing from, especially, the Chinese to fund the bailout and stimulus packages.

Says Buffett: "It's wrong for politicians and others to keep saying they're using (US) taxpayers money. My taxes haven't gone up and neither have yours. What we are doing is borrowing from the rest of the world and building up government debt. The classic way of reducing the impact and cost of foreign debt is by reducing the value of the dollars you're going to repay them with."

He added: "The people who are really going to pay (for the bailouts) are those who are buying fixed interest (US) government bonds that will be worth less when they redeem them. The AIG bonuses," he quipped, "were actually paid by the Chinese."

While warning that shareholders should expect to see "plenty of inflation", Buffett said there was no need to despair: "The best protection against inflation is your own earning power. If you are the best at what you do, you will get your share of the national pie no matter what inflation does. The second best protection is owning a wonderful business that does not need capital. With these guidelines, I'd say invest in yourself. It's always been the best investment you could make."

13 Asian nations to create multilateral currency swap deal by yearend

Finance ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan and South Korea agreed Sunday to upgrade the existing network of bilateral currency swap schemes to a multilateral operation by the end of this year.
The ministers also agreed to be vigilant over the possible impact on the regional economy of a new strain of influenza, according to a statement issued after the ASEAN-plus-three finance ministerial meeting on the Indonesian resort island of Bali.
''We are pleased to announce that we have reached agreement on all main components of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation or CMIM and decided to implement the scheme before the end of the year,'' Thai Finance Minister Chatikavanijn, who co-chaired the meeting along with his South Korean counterpart Jeung Hyun Yoon, told a press conference after the one-day meeting on the sidelines of the 42nd annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank.
According to the joint statement, Japan will commit $38.4 billion (about 3.8 trillion yen) to the $120 billion CMIM regional currency swap framework formed by China, Japan, South Korea and the 10 Southeast Asian countries.
China, which has the world's largest foreign reserves, will provide the same amount as Japan to the enlarged swap arrangement and South Korea will offer $19.2 billion.
ASEAN's four larger economies -- Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand -- will make equal allocations of $4.77 billion each, while the Philippines will provide $3.68 billion.
The allocations do not exceed 10 percent of each country's foreign reserves.
Allocations by the five smaller economies -- Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam -- will be 5 percent of their foreign reserves.
After the 1997-1998 financial crisis spread in Asia, the Chiang Mai Initiative network of bilateral swap deals was launched in 2000 as part of regional efforts to avert financial turmoil in Asia.
The combined deals, which were on a bilateral basis, reached $83 billion.
Calls to upgrade the arrangements have been increasing amid the current financial crisis, which has led to a plunge in the value of South Korea's won against the dollar.
Earlier in the day, ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda told a seminar that Asian governments have responded quickly to the global economic crisis with appropriate financial, monetary and fiscal policies, so the impact on financial stability has been limited.
He warned, however, that the ''longer and deeper'' the crisis becomes, the greater the risk to the region's financial sector.
''This grave situation needs more vigorous and concerted efforts by all concerned to bring growth in the region back to its higher trajectory and support the global recovery,'' Kuroda said.
The Asian Development Outlook 2009, released by the bank on March 31, forecasts that economic growth in developing Asia will slide to just 3.4 percent in 2009, down from 6.3 percent last year and a record 9.5 percent in 2007.
The global economic downturn has also been worsened by the outbreak of the new influenza spreading around the world.
''The spread of the new health threat of influenza A (H1N1) requires us to stay vigilant on the possible impact,'' the joint ministerial statement said.
Cases of the new flu have been reported in nearly 20 countries following an outbreak in Mexico that left at least 16 dead.
The ASEAN-plus-three ministers also endorsed the establishment of the Credit Guarantee and Investment Mechanism, a pool of funds intended to guarantee corporate bonds to further develop bond markets in Asia and avoid capital outflows.
The CGIM will be managed by the ADB, with preliminary capital of $500 million.
Also earlier in the day, Japan expressed readiness to offer support measures worth 10 trillion yen to other Asian countries if they fall into severe difficulties amid the deepening impact of the economic crisis.
Of the l0 trillion yen, according to Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano, about 6 trillion yen will be provided from its foreign reserves using a currency swap deal.
Under the framework, a crisis-hit Asian country could change the Japanese currency into dollars or other major currencies, if necessary, to pay, for example, external debts.
In addition, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation will start providing a guarantee of up to 500 billion yen when a country in the region issues yen-denominated Samurai bonds, Yosano said.
''We would be happy very happy if this program will be able to ease somewhat the difficulties that the countries might face in issuing their bonds,'' Yosano told a press conference.
The 13 Asian finance ministers agreed to meet again in Tashkent next year during which China and Vietnam will be co-chairs.

US Reports Signal Slumping Economy Improving

WASHINGTON -- A trio of reports Friday suggested the economy, while still sick, is healing a little.

Consumer sentiment, for instance, got better in April. The Reuters/University of Michigan final sentiment reading for April stood at 65.1, versus 61.9 in the preliminary survey and 57.3 in March.

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 40.1 last month, from 36.3 in March. Economists expected 38.3. While readings under 50 indicate contracting activity, the report, nonetheless, showed improvement.

"Overall, the worst of the recession is hopefully over, but there is still a long way to go before activity actually starts to expand again," said Paul Ashworth, an analyst at Capital Economics.

Also Friday, the Commerce Department reported factory orders in March fell 0.9%. That was more than expected and the seventh drop in eight months. Still, the decline, following a 0.7% increase in February, was smaller than plunges at the end of 2008. Orders fell 6.5% in November, for example, and 6.0% during October.

"This rate of decline has slowed sharply in more recent months, indicating a slowing in the pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector," Insight Economics analyst Steven Wood said. "Nevertheless, the manufacturing sector is still in recession, one that is unlikely to be quickly resolved."

Non-defense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft increased a second straight month, rising in March 0.4% after surging 4.1% in February, the Commerce data said. Those bookings are seen as a yardstick for capital spending by businesses. Orders for the year were 23.1% lower.

Manufacturers' inventories in March shrank 0.8%, after falling 1.3% in February. It was the seventh drop in a row.

Businesses trying to get their output in line with weaker consumer spending sent the economy plunging in the first quarter much more than expected, a report this week said. Gross domestic product fell 6.1% January through March, capping the worst run for the economy in 51 years. First-quarter business spending dived 37.9%. Businesses pared inventories by $103.7 billion, a drawdown that siphoned 2.79 percentage points out of January-March GDP -- nearly half of the 6.1% decline.

The GDP report, while indicating the economy remained in deep recession early this year, suggested improvement was coming. The huge inventory drawdown, for instance, signaled companies were getting control of stockpiles and that a freefall in output would end. The report also said first-quarter spending increased 2.2%, after dropping 4.3% in the fourth quarter and 3.8% in the third quarter.

The ISM new orders index increased to 47.2 from 41.2 in March. Production rose to 40.4 from 36.4. Employment remained extremely weak, but with some improvement. The index stood at 34.4 in April from 28.1 in March. The inventory index stood at 33.6, from 32.2 in March.

"This ISM report gives a sign that the worst of the decline may be over and that the inventory swing will moderate the pace of future reduction in manufacturing output," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI trade group. "While it is too early to believe that the recession has bottomed out, we are hopeful that a trough can be reached by the end of summer."

Obama Confirms Souter To Retire From Supreme Court

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama confirmed that Supreme Court Justice David Souter is retiring this year and said he hopes to have a replacement on the bench by October.

Obama made the announcement Friday in a surprise appearance at the White House's daily press briefing, where he unexpectedly commandeered the podium from spokesman Robert Gibbs.

"I just got off the telephone with Justice Souter, and so I would like to say a few words about his decision to retire from the Supreme Court," Obama said. "Throughout his two decades on the Supreme Court Justice Souter has shown what it means to be a fair-minded and independent judge."

News of Souter's decision to step down emerged overnight but wasn't made official until Obama's remarks. Just moments before Obama took the stage, Gibbs said the White House still hadn't received word from Souter and trod carefully around questions on the matter.

Gibbs appeared surprised when Obama entered the room unannounced nearly 30 minutes into the briefing.

The president, who didn't take questions, said he hopes to have Souter's replacement in place by the time the court's next term begins in October, but he gave no clues on who he would select. He pledged to consult with members of both parties in the vetting process.

"I will seek somebody with a sharp and independent mind and a record of excellence and integrity," Obama said. "I will seek someone who understands that justice isn't about some abstract legal theory or footnote in a casebook; it is also about how our laws affect the daily realities of people's lives."

"I will seek somebody who is dedicated to the rule of law, who honors our constitutional traditions, who respects the integrity of the judicial process and the appropriate limits of the judicial role," he added. "I will seek somebody who shares my respect for constitutional values on which this nation was founded and who brings a thoughtful understanding of how to apply them in our time."

To have a justice sworn in by October, Gibbs said the nomination would have to be submitted to the Senate "well before the end of July."

Souter was nominated by President George H.W. Bush and took his oath of office in October 1990. His departure isn't expected to change the court's dynamic because he consistently sided with its liberal wing.

His resignation letter to Obama was a crisp two sentences: "When the Supreme Court rises for the summer recess this year, I intend to retire from regular active service as a Justice, under the provisions of 28 US.C. Section 371(b)(l), having attained the age and met the service requirements of subsection(c) of that section. I mean to continue to render substantial judicial service as an Associate Justice."

Early speculation on Souter's replacement has focused on female candidates, including Diane Wood of the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago, Sonia Sotomayor of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York and Kim McLane Wardlaw of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been the only woman on the high court since Justice Sandra Day O'Connor retired in 2006.

The White House has been preparing for potential court vacancies since the transition.

Asked if diversity would be a factor in the president's selection, Gibbs said: "The most important thing to him is diversity of experience." That's a person, Gibbs said, who understands how legal decisions affect everyday Americans.

Gibbs repeated that Obama wouldn't have a "litmus test" for candidates but said the president would "absolutely" stand by his pledge to not appoint someone who doesn't believe in a right to privacy.

As a former constitutional law professor, Obama could be more involved in the vetting and interview process than past presidents. Gibbs said he would be "actively engaged."

"I think he's pretty confident that [in] discussing legal philosophy with a candidate, any perspective candidate, he could get a sense of what their mindset was relating to the law," Gibbs said.

US Officials To Release Bank Stress-Test Results Thursday

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department plan to release results of their tests assessing the health of the country's 19 largest banks on Thursday, later than had been previously planned.

Regulators are expected to disclose potential loss estimates for each individual bank, a government official said. In addition, the results will be tallied across the banks to give the public a better picture of the health of the banking industry. U.S. officials will disclose the loss estimates for certain loan categories and the banks' ability "to absorb those losses" under more-adverse economic scenarios.

Release of the results was pushed back several days as federal regulators and the banks have continued to debate the results. Several banks, including Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (C), have challenged the government's findings.

(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)

The results are expected to show that several banks may need more capital, or a higher quality of capital, in order to continue lending if the economy worsens through 2010. Government officials have said that any requirement that a bank improve its capital standing doesn't mean the government thinks the bank is going to fail. In fact, the government has said it wouldn't allow any of the 19 banks undergoing the test to fail.

In order to improve their capital standing, banks will have the option of raising capital from private investors, borrowing more capital from the government, or converting existing government investments into common stock.

Exactly how the stress tests would be unveiled has been unclear since February, when the Obama administration announced plans to conduct a thorough exam of the banking industry's ability to continue lending under tough economic conditions. A smooth release is a critical component of the effort, which is designed to restore confidence in banks.

Government officials originally hoped to release the results on May 4, but that plan was delayed as the discussions with banks intensified. The plan now is to release the results late in the afternoon on May 7.

US Vehicle Sales Worse Than Expected In April

DETROIT -- U.S. vehicle sales turned out even worse than expected in April, muting optimism that the auto market is poised to rebound even with General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC on the ropes.

Auto makers blamed the high-profile troubles at GM and Chrysler, which sought bankruptcy protection on Thursday, for dragging down sales last month across the industry.

"We've been fighting all these rumors left and right and it doesn't help," GM sales chief Mark LaNeve said. "I thought we were going to close much better than we did."

Shaky consumer confidence and high unemployment levels also offset benefits of increased credit availability, deep auto discounts and U.S. government backing of warranties on GM and Chrysler vehicles.

April sales totaled 819,540 cars and light trucks, a decline of 34% from a year earlier, according to market research firm Autodata Corp. The seasonally adjusted, annualized sales pace was 9.32 million vehicles, down from March's 9.86 million rate.

"Industrywide, April felt more like a dust bowl than a spring garden for new car sales," Jim O'Donnell, North American president for BMW AG, said in a prepared statement.

Every major auto maker reported dramatic declines from year-earlier levels. Toyota Motor Co., with a 42% slide, fell behind Ford Motor Co. in the monthly tally for the first time since early 2008 even as Ford's sales fell 32%. GM sales dropped 33% and Chrysler registered a 48% decline. Honda Motor Co. saw its U.S. sales drop 25% and Nissan Motor Co. was off 38%.

Sales had gotten off to a solid start in April, but anxiety around a Chrysler bankruptcy filing grew relentlessly. GM's plans to exact more painful cost-cutting in its bid to survive also contributed to the unease among car buyers.

The Obama administration has given GM until June 1 to present a convincing restructuring plan or file for bankruptcy protection. Chrysler is working to emerge from Chapter 11 in no more than two months.

Chrysler Vice Chairman Jim Press denied that the auto maker's troubles contributed to its sales decline. He said it stemmed from reduced liquidity at Chrysler Financial.

Chrysler plans to take out full-page newspaper ads next week to restore confidence among consumers, letting them know, "We're still here," Chrysler sales chief Steven Landry said.

Auto makers have heaped on incentives, which increased by 29%, or $680 per vehicle, last month compared to a year earlier, according to car-shopping site Edmunds.com.

But deals weren't enough to help even healthier, foreign-based auto makers. Toyota sales are off 38% year-to-date. The company predicts 2009 auto sales will come in around 10 million sales, which would mark a 24% decline from last year, when sales fell to a 15-year low. Toyota said Friday it plans to increase production of select vehicles after inventory levels dropped to a point that dealers stepped up orders.

"Although our April sales weren't much to call home about, there are signs that the industry sales contraction is nearing its end," Toyota division executive Bob Carter said in a conference call. "We are also encouraged by several economic indicators that point toward a modest recovery."

While companies said they see signs of an impending rebound, more turmoil lies ahead as GM and Chrysler race to remake themselves. The auto makers recently announced plans to idle most manufacturing for two months this summer in an effort to bring down inventories.

GM, planning to shed its Saab, Hummer, Saturn and Pontiac brands, is trying to clear out as many vehicles as possible. The auto maker would have to buy back many unsold vehicles as dealerships for those brands go out of business.

Personal Finance An Overview

Income Tax :-
Taxation according to a person’s ability to pay is universally accepted principle, and income is considered a satisfactory though not a sufficient index of such ability to pay. Income Tax is, therefore, generally recognized as a highly equitable form of taxation. A tax levied on income can nor normally be shifted to others and thus its incidence is on those for whom it is intended. Since income tax is progressive in nature, it tends to reduce economic disparity. Tax rates and method of calculating taxable income varies with fiscal status of the tax payer. Following are the broad categories of taxpayers:-

Companies:
· Non Salaried Individuals, Association of Persons (AOP),

· Hindu undivided families(HUF)

· Salaried individuals

Wealth Tax: -
is levied on that wealth of individuals which exceeds their liabilities on the valuation date. Firms and limited companies pay Wealth Tax on value of immovable properties held for construction and sale or letting out.

Capital Value Tax :-
It is payable by individuals, firms and companies which acquire an asset by purchase or a right to use for more than 20 years.

Workers Welfare Fund: -
It is levied @ 2% of the income where the taxpayer owns an industrial establishment and his income is Rs. 500,000 or more.

Corporate Asset Tax: -

It is levied through section 12 of the Finance Act, 1991. This is one time levy payable by a company as defined in Companies Ordinance, 1984, on the value of fixed assets held by the company on the "specified date".

South Africa Hikes Rates, but Interest Rate Differential is Preserved

Yesterday, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 8.5%. Since December, the Central Bank has now cut rates by 3.5%, from a high of 12%. [As an aside, the SARB uses a repo rate to conduct policy, as opposed to a discount rate. In theory, a repo rate is slightly unique in that it reflects the rate at which the Central Bank will repurchase government securities from commercial banks. The Federal Funds Rate, in contrast, "is the interest rate at which private depository institutions (mostly banks) lend balances (federal funds) at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions." In practice, both rates function as modulators of liquidity in the financial system.]

“The outlook for domestic economic growth remains subdued, with no indications of a quick recovery,” offered the SARB as a rationale for the rate cuts. Activity in manufacturing and mining, two of the cornerstones of the South African economy, have plummeted since the inception of the credit crisis, along with exports and retail sales. As a result, “Central bank Governor Tito Mboweni said April 7 he would ‘not be surprised‘ if the nation’s economy shrank for a second consecutive quarter in the three months through March, following a 1.8 percent contraction in the fourth quarter.” Meanwhile, South Africa’s producer price index (PPI) has declined for seven consecutive months. Coupled with a moderation in food and energy prices, inflation is no longer perceived as a serious problem.

The South African Rand actually rose on the news of the rate cut, as part of a trend that has seen the currency rise nearly 40% since touching a low of 11.7 Rand/Dollar in October. In April alone, “South Africa’s rand, the laggard of 27 major world and emerging-market currencies last year, rallied 12 percent against the dollar.” This reversal of fortune is due largely to the recovery of risk appetite and consequent return of investors to the carry trade.



South Africa is especially poised to benefit from this trend for a couple reasons. Primarily, the Rand’s advantage lies in in interest rate differentials. Even if the SARB hews to economists’ predictions and cuts its repo rate by another 100 basis points, the differential will still be tremendous, as virtually every industrialized country has lowered rates close to zero. In addition, South Africa is perceived as a relatively safe place to invest, especially relative to interest rate levels. According to one trader, “We’re seeing a re-assessment of the rand’s relative valuebecause of the fact that South Africa’s economy and financial system are relatively more sound than is the case in many other countries.”

As Bloomberg News summarized, you can’t stand in front of a freight train: “Emerging-market stocks are poised for their best month in 20 years as evidence the global recession is easing spurs investor demand for higher-yielding assets.”

In the end, you can’t fool the markets and carry traders ignore fundamentals at their peril. The recent election of Jacob Zuma as South African Prime Minister “hardly adds to confidence in the South African economy.” In addition, South Africa continues to maintain a sizable current account imbalance, “at 7.4 percent of gross domestic product last year.” Despite declines in February and March, the deficit touched a “record 17.380 billion rand deficit in January” and the markets are “expecting large deficits to persist this year as exports come under pressure.

USD Drifts Lower Ahead of FOMC


The dollar gave back some of its recent gains against the euro, falling to 1.3166 while dropping to 95.61 versus the yen. The FOMC kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting earlier and will be announcing the results Wednesday afternoon. With the Fed’s benchmark lending rate already at zero, there is likely to be no change in interest rates. The key focus will be whether the FOMC will continue to ease policy through alternative measures. The policy statement will also be closely scrutinized.

US equities clawed back into positive territory following a surprise reading in the Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence, which sharply beat expectations in April at 39.2 from a revised reading of 26.9 a month earlier. The bounce in consumer confidence marked its strongest reading since November 2008. The February Case-Shiller home price index declined by 2.2% on a monthly basis versus a 2.8% drop in the previous month, while declining by 18.63% compared with a revised 19% drop a year earlier. Also released was the April Richmond Fed manufacturing index posted a -9.0 reading compared with -20 in the previous month.

The economic calendar for Wednesday will see Q1 GDP and PCE. On an annualized basis, the economy is estimated to contract by 5.0%, versus 6.3% previously. The personal consumption index is estimated to increase by 0.9% in the first quarter compared with a 4.3% decline, while the core PCE is estimated to increase by 1.5%versus 0.9%.

The Psychological Factors of the Forex Market


There are so many factors that influence a currency's worth from the economic, political, and even social status of the country at hand. As opposed to other global markets, the Forex market is so big, no one person can have any serious affect on the rise or decline of any currency.

However, the opposite is not true. Many different aspects of the Forex market can influence Forex traders and how and what they decide to trade. Before we get into the psychological factors that influence Forex traders, we should talk a little bit about the primary means by which traders decide what to trade.

Forex analysis is of utmost importance when deciding what position to open or close. Analysis is of course categorized into two types: Technical and Fundamental. Most Forex traders use technical analysis and view the same charts, which leads to many traders around the globe trading in the same way and thereby causing a trend.

Fundamental analysis, however, should not by any means be ignored. Current events such as terrorist acts, war, big political or financial announcements can also take a big toll on the direction in which the market moves.

Rumors vs. Real Developments
As we said, the world's current events must not be ignored when trading Forex, as it can affect the market as much as anything else. Many traders have a news website open aside their trading platform, so they stay on top of world events. However, when paying attention to world events, it is very important to differentiate between real accurate news and fabricated rumors reported on the various media channels.

Many financial institutions will deliberately release a news report about a financial development, with the intention of making the market move up or down, depending on a current position. Before acting on a piece of news, verify that it is in fact real, then after you established that it is, check again!

Intervention and the Resulting Fear
As we have said, since the Forex market is so big, no one person or institution can have a real impact on the price of currencies. However, temporary fluctuations have been known to occur as a result of intervention by one institution or another.

Just to site an example, In 2002 the Bank of Japan watched the USD depreciate at a rate they believed was too rapid. They worried about the effect this would have on the competitiveness of Japanese exports to the US. The Japanese government decided to get involved and buy large sums of USDs, sometimes reaching numbers as high as 10 billion at a time. The market did not sit by quietly when one of these orders were placed. The USD would jump up to 150 pips within a few minutes. The Japanese government employed this tactic more than once and at different prices every time.

Now here is where it gets interesting. It was not the 10 billion USDs that made the market jump, what is 10 billion in a market of 4 trillion? What caused this fluctuation was the fear or emotional reaction that traders had to any talk of intervention on the part of the Japanese government.

The first piece of advice any Forex expert will tell you is, when trading Forex, leave all emotion out of the equation.

Follow the Leader Mentality
Many traders make the error of following a lead and assuming that if so many people are doing it, it must be the right move. What they do not realize is that those “so many people” had the same thought just moments before. Now this can work to your advantage if you get in in the beginning of such a trend, but if you join late, it might work against you. So if you see such a trend, check the news and the technicals to see what might have caused such a thing and decide whether you want in.

To summarize, there is really no room for emotion or personal feelings when it comes to trading Forex. Make sure that as a trader, you stay completely objective and scientific or else you might see some very heavy losses. Now, the big question is how to control your personal emotions and keep them out of the trading “room”? The answer is a trading technique. Make one for yourself and stick to it, no matter what.

Observe the movements of the market both from a fundamental and technical standpoint and if something does not seem right to you, don't trade, it's as simple as that. The market is not going anywhere any time soon, come back in an hour and decide on a trade then. When trading, never trade against the trend, always remember “the trend is your friend”. If you experience a loss, do not try to overcompensate in your next trade, stick to the plan. It is all about control when trading Forex.

Low volume and range trading characterized Friday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average transit between gains and losses during the trading session and finally ended up 0.5%; for the week gained 1.7%. In Forex activity was characterized by low volume and range trading; with no mayor moves across the board.

USD/JPY ended the American session lower but above 99.00. GBP/USD rose after starting at a session low at 1.4825. The pair moved in an up trend constantly but with quiet moves topping at 1.4920. EUR/USD rose slightly for the day spending most of the session in a range between 1.3250 and 1.3275. During the week the pair was able to recover early losses as risk aversion eased. This movement also favored GBP and CHF, who also gain against the dollar for the week.

Rupee remains unchanged versus dollar in the kerb market

Demand of US currency remained low as rupee stood unchanged in the kerb dealings today. The greenback commenced day’s trading at Rs.80/60, did not show any change and closed the day at the same price at close of markets on Saturday. On the international desk, the yen declined to a two-week low against the euro while the dollar dropped as signs of recovery in manufacturing in the U.S. and China sapped demand for the currencies as a refuge.

Australia’s dollar rose for a ninth week against the greenback and the rand gained today versus all of its major counterparts on speculation investors will buy higher-yielding assets. The dollar advanced against the yen as the yield premium of 10-year Treasuries over comparable Japanese debt increased this week to the highest level since November.

“There’s renewed optimism about the global economy,” said Samarjit Shankar, director of strategy for the global markets group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, the world’s largest custodial bank, with about $20 trillion in assets under administration. “Money is coming from the sidelines. For now, risk appetite is weighing on the yen, and the dollar remains on its back foot.”

The euro rose 1 percent to 131.77 yen at 4:20 p.m. in New York, from 130.52 yesterday, and reached 132.35, the highest level since April 14. The yen declined 0.7 percent to 99.30 against the dollar, from 98.63. It touched 99.58, the weakest level since April 17. The euro appreciated 0.3 percent to $1.3270 from $1.3230.

Japan’s currency fell 2.3 percent versus the euro and 2.2 percent against the dollar this week, the first declines in a month. The dollar dropped versus the euro for a second week, losing 0.2 percent

Friday, May 1, 2009

Morning Forex Overview

Previous session overview

The dollar and euro rose against the yen in Asia Friday as players kept selling the safe-haven currency because the threat of swine flu on the markets has not been as bad as feared.

But rises in the greenback and single currency will not last, dealers said, because much-awaited U.S. and European events next week are expected to prompt investors to sell the units again.

The USD currency was under pressure during early Europe due to month-end fixing dynamics. There was talk of country reserves managers selling USD across currencies. EUR rose from around USD1.3300 to USD1.3385, before the falling S&P500 dragged it back to the USD1.3200 area.

Sterling rose to a two-week high against a broadly lower US dollar as risk appetite resumed on positive sentiment for the global economy, which also boosted share prices.

The Japanese Yen weakened considerable in Asia as the Nikkei surge prompted USDJPY buying and majors helped the crosses extend gains. The BOJ held rates at 0.1% but cautioned that downside risks still remain. CPI (March) came out at -0.3% vs. -0.1% previously.

The Australian dollar pushed higher Friday in thin markets as traders awaited a slew of domestic data next week and the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision for firm direction.

Market expectation

The euro is higher against the dollar and yen, as risk-taking picks up on Friday.

Meanwhile, the euro is also likely to face downward pressure next week because of the European Central Bank's policy setting meeting.

The U.S. is expected to release results of so-called 'stress tests' next week to determine whether U.S. banks need more capitals to guard against a possible economic deterioration.

EURUSD extends to make a brief show above USD1.3300, touches USD1.3302. Underlying tone remains firm with rate currently trading around USD1.3298. Break and clear above USD1.3300 to allow for a move on toward USD1.3320.

Pound breaks back above USD1.4800 but momentum faltered ahead of overnight highs/offers at USD1.4820/25, easing back to USD1.4802 after touching USD1.4818. Above USD1.4825 and rate can push on toward USD1.4850/55. Above here and rate can move toward USD1.4890/00. Support moves up to USD1.4790.

EURJPY - Japanese margin accounts said to be sellers of yen crosses into this morning's rally, with euro-yen so far capped ahead of JPY132.00. Fibonacci resistance then noted at JPY132.44, with the 200-day moving average of more significance at JPY133.38 after the false break last month. Euro-yen trading below the 200-day on a closing basis since August 2008.

Before next week's data and policy decision, traders are watching the ISM Manufacturing Index, which could provide further evidence the U.S. economy is stabilizing

Currency Majors Technical Perspective

EUR/USD Price: 1.3272 Consolidation has Price at the Daily Pivot Level of 1.3266 bolstered dynamically by the Hourly 20SMA @ 1.3244. Continuation looks to Daily Static Resistance at the 1.3300 Figure, followed by Dynamic Resistance at 1.3342 followed by the Hourly Double-Top at the 1.3370’s Area. Clearance sees the 1.3400 Handle of Static Resistance. A Failure to maintain the Pivot finds Neutral Momentum leaning through 1.3183 Dynamic Support followed statically by 1.3148 back into Prior

US: ISM preview for April

March’s ISM figure rose slightly to 36.3 from 35.8 in February. Although the composite rose only marginally, the report included stronger details, as new orders rose from 33.1 to 41.2, while inventories dropped from 37.0 to 32.2. The improved orders-inventory balance bodes well for April’s release. The prices index rose slightly from 29.0 to 31.0. The readings from the local indices have been very positive this month, with improvements in all regions. Overall the local indices have improved by

Euro attempts to break above 1.3300

EUR/USD: Euro attempts to break above 1.3300
by Forex-onlineportal.blogspot.com
The Euro has reached on Early European session, an intra-day high at 1.3308 although the pair has dropped afterwards to levels below 1.3300.

According to Tim Salem, collaborator FXstreet.com, 1.3266 is a key level for the Euro: “Consolidation has Price at the Daily Pivot Level of 1.3266 bolstered dynamically by the Hourly 20SMA @ 1.3244. Continuation looks to Daily Static Resistance at the 1.3300 Figure, followed by Dynamic Resistance at 1.3342 followed by the Hourly Double-Top at the 1.3370’s Area. Clearance sees the 1.3400 Handle of Static Resistance.”

On the downside, Salem foresees: “Clearance sees the 1.3400 Handle of Static Resistance. A Failure to maintain the Pivot finds Neutral Momentum leaning through 1.3183 Dynamic Support followed statically by 1.3148 back into Prior Congestion, where Bias meets Confluence of Static 1.3110 Support and the Hourly 200SMA Area. Further Depreciation sees the Double-Bottom Area of the 1.300 .”